Nomura economists took an even dimmer view: "As disappointment kicks in, we see a rising risk of downward spiral, resulting in weaker activity data, rising unemployment, persistent disinflation, falling market interest rates and a weaker currency."
"Today's weaker-than-expected data show how difficult it is to keep the growth engine running after restarting it," said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle.
The year-on-year figures were heavily skewed by contractions last April when the financial hub of Shanghai and other major cities were under stringent anti-virus lockdowns and curbs, which severely impacted growth in the Asian giant in 2022. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, jumped 18.4%, up sharply from a 10.6% increase in March for their fastest increase since March 2021. It was well below expectations for a 10.9% increase in a Reuters poll of analysts although it marked the quickest growth rate since September 2022. Industrial output grew 5.6% in April from a year earlier, accelerating from the 3.9% pace seen in March, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. Tuesday's batch of data, which also showed a further decline in property investment, adds to concerns about the outlook for the world's second-biggest economy as both its domestic and export engines of growth remain underpowered. BEIJING, May 16 (Reuters) - China's April industrial output and retail sales growth undershot forecasts, suggesting the economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter and intensifying pressure on policymakers to shore up a wobbly post-COVID recovery.
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